The big news story in Canada right now is how the opposition parties in Ottawa are planning to bring down the Conservative minority. Now that’s not a terribly big surprise in a minority situation. However, the fact that we just had an election in October makes the strategy seem dubious at best. After all, it is unlikely that Canadians want another election and would likely punish the parties that forced it.
What’s even worse, however, is the issue they’ve picked to fight over. The Conservatives are planning to eliminate the taxpayer funding for all sitting political parties. That means that none of the parties will get a stipend based on the number of votes they received. This issue, and no other, seems to have united the opposition parties. What I (along with many other commentators) fail to see is how the elimination of this taxpayer funding is bad for Canadians. After all, if a party cannot raise the capital it needs from the population at large, it clearly has not got the support it needs to form a government, has it?
The opposition has a plan to avoid voter anger over a snap election, however. They’re making noises about forming a coalition government to replace Mr. Harper’s minority. While this would be entertaining to watch, I fail to see how it will be good for Canada. Even if they manage to put together a coalition and the Governor General accepts it, I fail to see how it will survive the spring budget. Even if it does, given the policies of those parties, I foresee massive deficit spending on dubious programs to save the economy which does not really need saving.
I should point out that a coalition formed from parties that do not have the largest number of seats in the House of Commons does have a precedent although most Canadians will not remember it ever happening since the recent period of minority governments comes on the heals of a long period of chiefly majority governments.
While I wish it was otherwise, I am predicting the opposition will bring down the government. I am also predicting that they will attempt to form a coalition. I am further predicting that that coalition will be defeated on its own budget.
Well, since I wrote this original post, there has been talk of prorogation of parliament, assuming the Governor General agrees. This would mean that parliament would be put in recess until the new year and budget time. This is, perhaps, the best short term solution since it will allow time for the dust to settle a bit. It could be a problem, though, as it will give the fledgeling coalition time to get organized and possibly gain mindshare with Canadians. Time will tell.
I still maintain my prediction. Prorogation will only delay the fall of Mr. Harper’s government.
Well, the prorogation is official. Quite frankly, it gives everyone a much needed breather and time to put some real thought into the economy and so on. I still maintain that the coalition is not interested in good government but rather in gaining power, however, so I expect the budget will fail. That said, a great deal can happen between now and the end of January.
I can honestly say that I agree with the Governor General’s decision to allow the prorogation. After all, the opposition will still get their confidence vote over the budget, we will not have an election campaign or government change over Christmas, and the Conservatives have more than two weeks to figure out what to do about the economy.
In the months since my last comment on this issue, the government has brought a budget and it has passed. It has a provision for a periodic confidence vote on the status of the stimulus package, however, so the government is not out of the woods yet. However, as time passes, it becomes less likely that a coalition of the opposition parties will be workable. Still, time will tell.