Well, voting is underway in the federal election. The final result will prove interesting. I fully expect we will see a Conservative minority which will be immediately toppled by an NDP led coalition. This would be the worst possible result which will lead, at best, to infighting and another election inside of a year. More likely, though, such a coalition will lead to total, or at least significant, economic collapse as a result of insane overspending.
I hope to be wrong. I hope for a Conservative majority. I worry about the consequences of that but I worry more about the consequences if it does not happen. Perhaps the best result would be a very slim majority – say 156 or 157 seats out of 308 – which would mean a very concerted effort might be enough to topple them. Perhaps a huge minority of 153 or 154 seats might also work for that would require every opposition MP to cooperate to block the government. But the polls leading up to the election do not suggest that that is even possible.
If the polls are wrong and the Liberals retain second party status, a coalition becomes less of a frightening spectre but, nevertheless, a bad outcome, likely with the same outcome as an NDP led coalition since the NDP will necessarily form a substantial portion of it.
Even worse, such a coalition would necessarily consist of Bloc Québécois MPs which means a substantial voice dedicated to disintegrating the country. I fail to see how such a group would be willing to cooperate, even short term, with federalist parties.
Regardless of the outcome, this federal election will likely prove to be the most dramatic one in living memory.
Only hours now until we know if my prognostication is correct.
The results aren’t all in yet but it’s clear that the Conservatives are going to win at least a minority. As I write this, they are bouncing around the 155 mark needed for a majority. The NDP are also clearly going to form the official opposition. The precise breakdown of the results will take some time to settle given how close the numbers currently are.
Just checked the numbers again and the Conservatives are leading or elected in 164 ridings. It now seems likely that they will have a majority.
With 308 ridings reporting, the experts are calling a Conservative majority. Numbers breakdown at the moment is 166 Conservative, 105 NDP, 34 Liberal, 2 Bloc Québécois, and 1 Green. The numbers will likely flip flop around a bit for a while until all polls in all ridings report in.